Singapore Preliminary GDP Estimate for 2008Q4 and Forecast for 2009

Singapore's Ministry of Trade and Industry has released its preliminary GDP estimate for the fourth quarter of 2008. It has also released forecasts for both 2009's GDP and consumer price index (CPI) inflation. Below are some of the highlights:

On the GDP Estimate for the Fourth Quarter of 2008:

Preliminary estimates for the Singapore economy show that real gross domestic product (GDP) contracted by 3.7 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2008, following the decline of 0.2 per cent in the preceding quarter. On a seasonally adjusted, annualised quarter-on-quarter basis, real GDP fell by 16.9 per cent, compared to a decline of 5.1 per cent in the third quarter of 2008. ... For 2008 as a whole, the economy is estimated to have grown by 1.2 per cent, compared with 7.7 per cent in 2007.

The manufacturing sector is estimated to have contracted by 4.1 per cent, down from an expansion of 5.8 per cent in 2007. Several clusters - electronics, precision engineering, and chemicals - were affected by the rapid decline in demand in Singapore's key export markets, especially in the last quarter of 2008. Industry-specific factors also exerted a negative impact. ... The construction sector grew by 17.9 per cent in 2008, compared to 20.3 per cent in 2007. The healthy level of construction output in 2008 was sustained by robust activity in the residential, industrial and civil engineering building segments. Construction demand was also supported by an upswing in the number of public housing and infrastructural projects committed.

Growth in the services producing industries moderated from the strong growth rates in 2007. Growth in the wholesale & retail trade and the transport & storage sectors moderated to 2.6 per cent and 3.2 per cent respectively in 2008, from 7.3 per cent and 5.1 per cent in 2007. After a robust 16.9 per cent growth in 2007, the financial services sector grew by 7.1 per cent in 2008. As a result of the global financial crisis, there was a significant decline in fund management and stock broking activities in the second half of 2008. ... The business services sector grew by 7.3 per cent, compared to 7.8 per cent in 2007, although segments such as real estate, legal services and accounting services slowed down in the last two quarters of the year.

On 2009's GDP Forecast:

MTI expects the economic downturn to continue in 2009. The weaker outlook for the Singapore economy compared to earlier forecasts reflects two factors: global economic activity has declined faster and deeper, and the spillover effects on key sectors of the economy will be stronger. ... [E]xternal demand conditions have weakened to a greater extent than earlier estimated. ... The electronics purchasing managers' index for Singapore posted a record low in December 2008. The chemicals cluster is expected to weaken with lower oil prices and lower global demand for other manufactured goods. Global trade is expected to contract in 2009, which will affect trade-related sectors such as wholesale & retail trade and transport & storage. The weak economic performance in the fourth quarter of 2008 reflects these spillover effects, and suggests that growth will weaken further in 2009.

Taking into account the above factors, MTI is revising the economic growth forecast for 2009 to -5.0 to -2.0 per cent.

On CPI Inflation:

The forecast for CPI inflation in 2009 has been revised to -1.0 to 0 per cent. This is largely in expectation of a continued downward correction of commodity prices from the peaks in 2008, in line with the weakening global economy. These global developments will ease upward pressures on domestic retail prices. ...

A pdf copy of the report, including further statistics, can be found here.

How to Protect Your Job in a Recession

The blog Advertising is Good for You linked to a Harvard Business Review article (published September 2008) entitled How to Protect Your Job in a Recession. I thought the article's executive summary had some good advice, so I'm posting it down below. All of the emphases are mine.

As the economy softens, corporate downsizing appears almost inevitable. Don't panic yet, though. While layoff decisions might seem beyond your control, there's plenty you can do to make sure you retain your job. In this article, Banks, a former HR executive at Chase Manhattan and FleetBoston Financial, and Coutu, an HBR senior editor and former affiliate scholar at the Boston Psychoanalytic Society and Institute, describe how to improve your chances of survival. It's mostly a matter of coolheaded planning, they observe. When cuts loom, the first thing to do is act like a survivor. Be confident and cheerful. Research shows that congeniality trumps competence when push comes to shove. Look to the future by focusing on customers, for without them, no one will have work. Survivors also tend to be versatile; tight budgets demand managers who can wear several hats, so start demonstrating what other capabilities you can offer. If you're, say, a manager who once worked as a teacher, take on a training role. Remember to be a good corporate citizen: Participation matters now more than ever. It isn't the time to behave as if work is beneath you or to argue for a new title. When one executive's department was folded under the management of a less-experienced colleague, she swallowed her pride and wholeheartedly supported the new hierarchy. Her superiors noticed her commitment and eventually rewarded her with a prestigious appointment. It's also important to offer leaders hope and realistic solutions. Energize your colleagues around change, like the VP of learning at a firm undergoing major staff reductions did. He organized a humorous in-house radio show that revived spirits and helped management communicate with employees-and ended up with a promotion.

US Unemployment Rates - November 2008

The November US unemployment figures were released recently. The figures, overall, are continuing to get worse. Here are some of the highlights:

• Overall, the "official" national unemployment rate (U-3) increased by 0.2%, from 6.5% to 6.7%, over October's number. For the past twelve months, the national rate has increased 2.0%.
  
• For the most inclusive unemployment rate measured (U-6), the increase was 0.7%, from 11.8% to 12.5%. For the past twelve months, U-6 has increased by 4.1%.
  
• In terms of monthly change, the state with the largest increase was Oregon (again), with a 0.9% increase; North Carolina had the next largest increase, at 0.8%, and the District of Columbia and Indiana had increases of 0.7% each.
  
• On an annual basis, the state with the largest increase continues to be Rhode Island with an increase of 4.1%. North Carolina has moved into second place, with an increase of 3.2%, and Georgia and Idaho are tied for third with increases of 3.0% each.
  
• The states with the lowest annual increases are Nebraska at 0.4%, Iowa and South Dakota at 0.5%, Wisconsin at 0.8%, and Kansas, New Hampshire and Utah at 0.9%.
  
• The state with the highest unemployment rate is Michigan, which increased 0.3% to 9.6%; Rhode Island, which was tied for the highest rate in October remained at 9.3% to place second. California and South Carolina are tied for third with a rate of 8.4%.
  
• The states with the lowest unemployment rates continue to be Wyoming (3.2%), North Dakota (3.3%), and South Dakota (3.4%). Utah has been joined by Nebraska at 3.7% each.
  
• In terms of non-farm payroll employment (i.e., number of jobs), the states with the biggest decreases since October were Florida (-58,600), North Carolina (-46,000), California (-41,700), Michigan (-36,900) and Georgia (-30,000).
  
• For annual changes in non-farm payroll employment, the states with the biggest decreases are Florida (-206,900), California (-136,000), Michigan (-112,700), and Arizona (-82,200). Two states continue to have statistically significant increases over the past year: Texas (221,200; down 9,200 from October) and Wyoming (8,200; down 1,300).

The PDF version of the Bureau of Labor Statistics press release can be found here.